Wednesday, April 22, 2026

Can you guess why people are placing such huge impossible bets on the next presidential election?



My guess, grasping at straws, was that it was bots, but there's this:
One theory from Polymarket traders that Barron’s spoke to focuses on a cryptocurrency token that Polymarket is expected to mint and distribute to its users sometime this year. Those traders have theorized that total trading activity may be a factor in deciding the number of tokens received. Taking cheap bets on a Kardashian presidency would be a way to boost that metric.
...
On Kalshi, a rival platform, trading volume on the presidential election winner market is concentrated among the favorites.
In other gambling news:





(I think this is still just a theory)