Thursday, October 6, 2022

An optimistic take on "How does the Russo-Ukrainian War end?"

After a long discussion about why a nuclear attack is unlikely:

By what I take to be no coincidence, both Kadyrov and Prigozhin control something like a private armed force.  ... Prigozhin and Kadyrov are calling for is an intensification of the war, and mocking the Russian high command in the most aggressive possible tone, but meanwhile they seem to be protecting their own men. 


In the overall logic that I am describing, rivals would seek to conserve whatever fighting forces they have, either to protect their own personal interests during an unpredictable time, or to make a play for Moscow.  If this is indeed the present situation, it will soon seem foolish for everyone involved to have armed forces located in distant Ukraine, or, for that matter, to get them killed there day after day.  Then comes a tipping point. Once some people realize that other people are holding back their men, it will seem senseless to expend (or alienate) one's own. 

At a certain moment, this logic applies to the Russian army itself. 


Mobilization itself starts to look like a spear pointed the wrong way


And so we can see a plausible scenario for how this war ends.  ... In such a struggle, it makes no sense to have armed allies far away in Ukraine who might be more usefully deployed in Russia: not necessarily in an armed conflict, although this cannot be ruled out entirely, but to deter others and protect oneself.